For me the most interesting thing is the seeming rush to buy new cars before the tariffs cause significantly increased prices, where the interesting part will be whether new car sales absolutely crash in the next quarter or two.
That would just be a demand shift. The bigger risk is whether people who might have otherwise bought a new car keep their current car because of recession and stagflation fears.
In economics they call them "durable goods". The demand is usually extra reactive to price changes because you can choose when to replace it in a wide band of time.
For me the most interesting thing is the seeming rush to buy new cars before the tariffs cause significantly increased prices, where the interesting part will be whether new car sales absolutely crash in the next quarter or two.
That would just be a demand shift. The bigger risk is whether people who might have otherwise bought a new car keep their current car because of recession and stagflation fears.
Yes, what I didn't say clearly enough was: will the 5% uptick in Q1 be followed by a much more than 5% downtrend for Q2 onwards.
We can but wait.
In economics they call them "durable goods". The demand is usually extra reactive to price changes because you can choose when to replace it in a wide band of time.
Plus the uptick will make the downtick numbers look even worse